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The main issue on the minds of most Marylanders as the state continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 election looms is the economy and jobs, according to a new poll.
The main issue on the minds of most Marylanders as the state continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 election looms is the economy and jobs, according to a new poll.
About 28% of voters in a Goucher poll released Thursday said the economy was the issue that would be most important to them as they decided which gubernatorial candidate to vote for in 2022.
The other main issues cited were as follows:
- Health care (14%)
- Race and social justice issues (13%)
- Taxes (12%)
Education and the environment were each cited as the top priority by 8% of respondents.
The survey of 631 Maryland voters was conducted October 14-20 and has a 3.9 point margin of error.
Broken down by party, the economy was the most cited issue by Republicans (46%) and unaffiliated voters (36%).
The main issue identified by Democrats, who were more evenly distributed across multiple topics, was racial and social justice (20%).
Only 3% of Republicans cited racial and social justice as their main concern. Twenty-two percent of black voters did so.
Voters in the poll were also given a choice between generic confrontations for the general election and asked which candidate they would prefer:
In a clash between a Republican like Larry Hogan or a progressive Democrat:
- 55% would probably prefer a Republican like Larry Hogan
- 38% would probably prefer a progressive Democrat.
Faced with the choice between a Republican like Donald Trump or a progressive Democrat:
- 31% would probably prefer a Republican like Donald Trump
- 62% would probably prefer a progressive Democrat.
If the legislative candidates were a Republican like Larry Hogan or a moderate Democrat:
- 49% would probably prefer a Republican like Larry Hogan
- 44% would probably prefer a moderate Democrat.
And in a race between a Republican like Donald Trump or a moderate Democrat:
- 29% would probably prefer a Republican like Donald Trump
- 69% would probably prefer a moderate Democrat.
Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College, which conducted the poll, said the results of the hypothetical clashes suggest that a Trumpian candidate would face a significant electoral disadvantage compared to a moderate Democrat or progressive. The former president has never recorded an approval rating among Marylanders above his 30s.
“The clearest path to running for governor for Republicans in Maryland is to nominate a candidate voters see as similar to Larry Hogan,” Kromer said in a note on the poll results. “On the Democratic side, it appears that a moderate candidate is electorally stronger than a progressive among registered voters.”
She added a caveat: “… We are one year away from the election. Preferences can easily change once voters know the candidates as individuals. “
